When the FBI announced they were reopening their investigation into Hillary Clinton’s use of a private email server she lost her lead over Trump in the polls for the first time in months. Since the second closing of the investigation and subsequent decision not to charge Mrs. Clinton at this time, the polls have only slightly shifted in Hillary’s favor.
The end result has been a tightening of the race, with polls suggesting the outcome is more difficult to predict than ever.
While Donald Trump is facing legal trouble of his own, as of the time of this writing none of his cases involve criminal charges. That leads to a very important question: How can this case affect the presidency? In order to look closely at the possible solutions, we’ll take a look at the possibilities that can happen if Hillary wins the election.
The Law
The legal implications are convoluted at best. There are two major ways the situation can develop, and each leads to substantially different outcomes, so we’ll tackle them one at a time.
Case 1: Indicted Before Inauguration
There is no chance that Hillary would be indicted before voting finishes, and she has made it clear that she won’t step down, so those two scenarios can be ignored. What is possible is for the investigation to progress far enough to indict her before inauguration. If that happens, things get complicated quickly.
First, it’s important to recognize that indictment is not the same as conviction, so that alone would not disqualify her from presidency. Historical precedent suggests she might step down, which would lead to Tim Kaine being president, but that would be entirely up to her.
If the trial cannot conclude before inauguration, things get really crazy. As there is no historical precedent, things could swing either way, but there are strong cases to suggest an inaugurated president cannot be tried for a crime.
If this happened, she would be in the clear unless further actions led to impeachment. Of course, a case of this magnitude would almost certainly reach the Supreme Court, so it’s entirely possible that they could rule in favor of a trial.
Even if all of that happens, a criminal conviction still does not automatically disqualify a person from being president. If the sentence is severe enough, she could be ruled incapacitated, but unless that happens, the term continues.
Case 2: Indicted After Inauguration
The previous case started to touch on this, but if no indictment happens before inauguration, then it ultimately boils down to a legal battle. The courts will have to decide if the president can be brought to trial or not.
Since this would likely fall on the Supreme Court in the end, the only certainty in this scenario is that there would be no quick resolution, and, barring a resignation, the Clinton Presidency would likely endure for a few years, if not the entire term, before the situation is settled.
Additional complications come into play when you consider the president might be able to pardon herself. Regardless of the outcome, the situation would weaken such a presidency and probably the world’s view of the country.
The Impact
The obvious truth in this mess is that having a president in this situation is bad for America. The possibility of standing trial on counts of negligence, corruption, incompetence or whichever other charge could apply undermines the entire Executive Branch.
Furthermore, it undermines America’s global presence, weakening any and all international negotiations from the start. Both security and economy can only suffer from the situation, but trying to anticipate just how bad the impact could be is very difficult.
Some of the best historical measures can be insightful, but there is no promise that they directly correlate. The closest situation we can investigate is the Watergate scandal and President Richard Nixon’s resignation. The situation caused a massive drop in the stock market and bonds that took roughly two years to recovery.
Another situation to analyze is the assassination of JFK. That led to dramatic stock drops, but they recovered within a week. Both situations exemplify a trend that is well known in economics: instability is bad for investment.
The real damage of this potential situation can only be measured in terms of uncertainty. If the courts drag the process and the status of the president remains unpredictable for long enough, it could be enough to push the U.S. into another recession, with potential damage far exceeding the 2008 crash.
Regards,
Ethan Warrick
Editor
Wealth Authority
