Turkey just held a major vote that would determine whether or not the country would give a dramatic power increase to its president, Tayyip Erdogan. An increasingly polarizing figure, he has been at the center of international attention for a number of reasons. Last Sunday’s vote was only the most recent time he made headlines, but it represents sweeping changes in Turkey and the surrounding region.
The Referendum
This discussion begins with understanding the basics of the referendum itself. As it stands, the Turkish people have voted it into play with a 51.5-percent majority. That’s a slim victory, but it’s still enough. The referendum essentially redirects power from parliament to the president, creating unilateral control over budgeting, declaring states of emergency and appointing or removing senior civilian positions.
These changes come by abolishing the post of prime minister and redefining the president’s administration through appointed positions in his cabinet and an unspecified number of vice presidents. It also allows Turkey to remove a clause in its constitution that allows for military coups. The referendum is scheduled to take effect in 2019 after the next presidential election.
To an American, this seems like a dangerous bit of legislation that inhibits democracy and promotes a totalitarian government. Turkey came to this crossroads through a series of crises that started with a destabilized Middle East. Increased terrorism and the chaos of the Syrian civil war have flooded Turkey with external threats and bogged their resources with floods of refugees from Iraq and Syria.
Unable to cope, this resulted in a military coup that tried to oust Erdogan last July. Its failure has resulted in the current president consolidating power. This latest referendum comes after detaining 47,000 citizens and removing another 120,000 from official positions.
Despite Erdogan’s aggressive posturing, he still has staunch opposition. Led by Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the Republican People’s Party (CHP) won most metropolitan districts, including Istanbul where Erdogan was once mayor.
Their next big play is to contest the validity of the referendum vote. They will have a recount of roughly 60 percent of all of the votes. This recount is justified on the claim that election officials decided at the last minute to count unstamped votes. Whether or not the recount will have any meaning remains to be seen, but for now it looks as though the referendum will stand.
Impact in Europe
Now that you know the major details, let’s talk about how this affects Europe. Prior to the vote, Turkey has been applying for accession into the EU. EU leaders including Germany and the Netherlands were staunchly against the referendum to the point that they banned any pro-stance campaigning in their borders. While they have not formally rescinded Turkey’s EU application, the major players have a very negative outlook on accepting Turkey into the fold.
Before you think that the discussion is over, consider Turkey’s leverage. The country sits as the primary gateway for Syrian and Iraqi refugees to enter Europe, and this is the primary point of contention. Last year, Turkey signed an agreement to slow the tide of refugees into the continent.
Despite their public claims to the contrary, the whole of the EU is wary of the increased burden of refugees, and even countries like Germany are ill equipped to increase that burden. All of this could be a moot point if France ends up leaving the organization by the end of the year, but until there is more information, Turkey and the EU are at a deadlock.
In the U.S.
The referendum has a less direct impact here at home. Trump’s team has made no official statements in response so far, so there are two main points. First, Erdogan blames an expatriate currently residing in the U.S. for organizing the coup last year. If he demands extradition, this could create tension between the countries.
The second point comes down to fighting terrorism in the Middle East. Turkey strongly disagrees with who the U.S. has trained and equipped to fight ISIS and other groups in the region, and with Erdogan’s increased power, the Pentagon may have to rethink their current strategies.
In all, it will take time for any of this to affect you. The biggest concerns are how Turkey will interact with the EU, and that is actually a minor factor compared to the major elections hitting the continent this year. In the end, this is another extension of Middle Eastern turmoil, and it could prove to be among the straws that break the camel’s back and eventually bring the European Union to an end.
Regards,
Ethan Warrick
Editor
Wealth Authority
