The relationship between Putin and Trump is unprecedented. While critics tried to use it as an attack on Trump, there is no question that improved relations between the U.S. and Russia is good for the whole world.
Both countries are still global powers, and their cooperation, or lack thereof, sends ripples that cross oceans. It’s obvious that peace is good, but just how could better ties with Russia help the U.S.?
Conflict
It all starts with Syria. Trump has made it clear that Obama-based policies in Syria have been catastrophic, and he is willing to make fast changes. If any part of the Trump-Putin relationship is predictable, it is that Trump will be willing to go farther to secure a partnership in Syria than the previous administration.
If the countries unite, the potential to a swift resolution is huge. With combined military might, ISIS can be quelled, and the civil war can return to negotiation rather than outright bloodshed.
This is an opportunity to make a foundation for new relationships between the U.S. and Russia. That it ends the refugee crises, brings the highest level of stability to the Middle East in 30 years and pushes international terrorism back are all bonuses.
But, global conflict isn’t limited to Syria. The hope is that the U.S. and Russia can further build common ground and come to more agreements. The chances for reducing tension between Russia and NATO, as well as between the U.S. and China, could mean big things for international trade.
Trade
Before we look at trade potential between the U.S. and Russia, it’s important to analyze Europe. Conflict resolution in Syria opens the opportunity for the U.S. to lead better negotiations. While that starts with de-escalating military tension, it can culminate in dropping the more severe sanctions against Russia.
Increasing trade between eastern and western Europe is what can secure longer lasting stability. For all of its flaws, the trade agreements that led to the formation of the EU have effectively achieved that stability in the west for more than half a century.
Opening trade across Europe is extremely good for the U.S. As it stands, Russia is not a top 10 economy in the world, but sanctions are a big part of that. Enabling their economy to grow represents a major U.S. trade partner that isn’t encumbered by outdated trade agreements.
The U.S. and Russia can create a brand new agreement that is mutually beneficial. As increased trade stabilized ties, the biggest hope comes from oil. Russia can become a major supplier of U.S. oil. This increases competition and stabilizes international oil prices, and it takes power away from U.S. opponents in the Middle East.
As much as trade is good, expanding oil supplies is one of the biggest U.S. benefits that come from Russia.
Negotiations
A lot of trade potential is speculative, and none if it can be achieved quickly. Stronger U.S. led negotiations are much more attainable. Again, starting with a united front in Syria, the U.S. can ease NATO pressure against Russia in exchange for Russian help with China and North Korea.
Trump was elected to be the U.S. deal maker, and this is one of the major deals he can broker that is beyond traditional politicians. While Russia is unlikely to completely abandon its ties to China or North Korea, simply cozying up to the U.S. is enough to completely restructure the balance of power.
If Russia is even hesitant to back these countries against the U.S., they lose major bargaining chips, and the U.S. can leverage better international deals. While bringing North Korea into the global economy is a bit of a pipe dream, strong arming China into fairer trade is achievable, and it gets much easier if Putin isn’t staunchly against the U.S.
Technology
The Cold War had Russia and the U.S. push the boundaries of technology in competition. Imagine what they can do with cooperation. Russia has already established itself as a world leader in programing and cyber security. As the U.S. continues to lose ground in those fields, it could use a strong ally.
This is another opportunity that can’t quickly be achieved, but it serves to point out just how high the ceiling is. What started as cooperating space programs in the 90s can become something bigger and better.
Just how much Trump and Putin can repair the relationship between their countries will be hard to predict, and it will be one of the major successes or failures of the Trump presidency. For now, we can only watch with hope, but still, it all starts with Syria.
Regards,
Ethan Warrick
Editor
Wealth Authority
