Healthcare reform certainly hit a brick wall in March. Congress failing to pass the bill was a major disappointment for most of the country, and even the stock market took a hit as a result. Despite the setback, it might prove to be for the best in the long run, as negotiations over the most important health issues have been able to blaze anew.
The important takeaway is that the White House has not abandoned its promise to repair the damage of Obamacare, and the teams are working furiously to draft legislation that is best for all Americans.
The State of Reform
Undeterred by the March vote, the White House started April by meeting with key Representatives to revise healthcare legislation. Over the week, seven key Republicans met with Mike Pence and other White House officials to discuss what changes were needed to secure a pass through the House.
By the end of the week, even Chris Collins was optimistic that an Obamacare replacement could be passed this year. This is big news since he has been one of the most pessimistic Republicans throughout healthcare discussions.
The Changes
A number of changes to legislation are being discussed. The first to note is a change to state-level insurance requirements. Trump often talked about removing state borders for the health exchange. This is a variant of that idea, and it would loosen the minimum requirements for state-level insurers.
Critics complain that this would allow insurance companies to once again target pre-existing conditions, but so far removing those protections has not been on the table.
The closest change in discussion is to create high-risk pools. These would group individuals who have costlier conditions into subsidized groups. By removing them from the general insurance pools, premiums can drop for health, working-class Americans without denying coverage to those who need it most.
This brings us to the major point of contention: funding. One of the killers of the March draft was that the reforms would cause too many Americans to lose their insurance. In response to that, Trump-led republicans are willing to concede an extra $15 billion to fund the high-risk pools.
Early estimates suggest that instead of 20 to 30 million Americans losing insurance, these changes could insure and additional 1 to 3 million. Paul Ryan has fully endorsed this portion of the new legislation, and it’s responsible for the newfound optimism.
The Timeline
While reform is still under active discussion, predicting when it could pass through Congress is a difficult venture. While Trump pushed for a new version before the April recess, that deadline was not met. The earliest possible vote on the new legislation would be April 25.
While it’s possible healthcare could be passed then, there are still some major hurdles. The biggest of those is the impending budget vote. The next session has to approve the budget that will fund the federal government through September, and leaving health care alone for now would make that process much easier.
Even after that vote, next year’s budget deadline is still fast approaching and has to be approved by October 1. The major problem is getting the House to agree on redistributing funds for healthcare reform in the midst of the major budgetary structuring that is already underway.
Changes are still within reach, and the latest versions of the new healthcare bill are the most encouraging yet. If passed, they can massively alleviate the cost burden that currently weighs the middle class, and it would be a certain boon for economic growth without preventing Americans from getting good health care.
Still, the only way it could pass by the end of the year is through excellent leadership and Congressional cooperation. It will be up to Trump’s team to lead the way on budgetary reform that will make it easy enough for the House to justify new healthcare expenditures.
Ultimately, healthcare reform is still very much on the docket for the Trump Administration. How quickly it will pass is another question. In the wake of increasing tension in Syria and Trump’s other major agenda items, the outlook is unlikely, but not without hope.
If health legislation can be passed this year, it would certainly signal Trump’s exemplary leadership and point to an even better America than we were expecting.
Regards,
Ethan Warrick
Editor
Wealth Authority
