Forecasting the FOURTH Pandemic Stimulus Package

With cases rising and millions of Americans still reeling from the COVID-19 pandemic, a Phase 4 stimulus package has been a hot topic. And Larry Kudlow, one of the White House’s lead economic advisors, confirmed recently that one is on the way to help burden the economic blow the pandemic has caused.

But many questions still remain as to what this package will include. It’s likely, however, that there will be some sort of Payroll Protection Plan extension, relief for struggling industries and perhaps even a return to work bonus to encourage Americans to get back into the workforce.

Here’s a look at everything we know about the looming Phase 4 package as of now:

Another Stimulus Check is Likely

The $1,200 per person stimulus check that went to qualifying Americans as part of the CARES Act passed in March probably didn’t go very far for hard-hit individuals. It seems that another stimulus check is likely, but the terms surrounding it are still up in the air. There are various proposals out there, including a one-time maximum household payment of $6,000 that was passed as part of the HEROES Act in the Democrat-controlled House of Representatives. While this seems unlikely, there’s belief that any American making $40,000 or less per year will be eligible for another stimulus check, as well as some sort of allocation for qualifying dependents. We’ll learn more as another stimulus package is negotiated in the coming weeks.

Change, Not Extend, Unemployment Benefits

As we’ve noted before, the extra $600 per week unemployment benefit that was part of the CARES Act is ending July 31. Republicans have gone on record stating that they do not support extending this, however Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin has mentioned that while this $600 won’t be extended, there will likely be some sort of change made to ensure out of work Americans are still supported beyond basic unemployment benefits. There is also talk of offering a one-time return to work bonus or temporary weekly bonuses to entice out of work Americans to get back to work.

Other Things to Look For

The Payroll Protection Plan has already been extended once, and now it appears imminent that it will again be extended as businesses still reel from the pandemic’s fallout. And lookout for additional relief packages for hard hit industries, like hospitality, entertainment and perhaps even transportation. There’s talk that certain tax breaks or tax credits could also be worked into the next stimulus. One idea that has been kicked around is a tax credit for vacationing in the U.S. that would be eligible on airfare, hotels, dining and other qualifying expenses.

U.S. lawmakers have been on a scheduled vacation that ended on July 20. They now have have three weeks to negotiate a new package before they go on another scheduled break on Friday, August 7. There’s a lot to do in this time, but it’s becoming apparent that Americans may not be able to wait much longer for additional relief.


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