You don’t have to be Warren Buffett to know that the U.S. economy has taken some serious hits, especially in the travel sector. The big dollar generating cruise business was tethered to the pier and only government bailouts saved the grounded airline industry.
That said, this isn’t going to last forever. Even as some blue states seem adamant on keeping pandemic-related restrictions in place, America’s economy is showing signs of recovery. Among the populace, it’s generally understood that COVID-19 is on its way out, and life will begin resembling some sort of “normal” in the months to come. This means the travel industry will soon be back with a vengeance.
Let’s take stock of the situation before going into what this recovery is going to look like.
Cruise Industry COVID Woes
The sea cruise industry has been under a CDC no-sail order since October 2020. Big players in the cruising business like Royal Caribbean won’t be back in partial business port until Spring 2021. Before they sail, they will have to demonstrate effective infection control measures and run simulated voyages without paying passengers.
As COVID-19 vaccines begin an accelerated phase-in, optimistic vacationers are beginning to book for summer cruises and beyond. Want a three-day cruise to the Bahamas? The Norwegian Cruise Line is booking sailing dates of July 30 for a little over $1,000 for a couple.
Don’t expect to go ashore anywhere in the Caribbean without proof of a negative COVID-19 test — and a health travel visa from careful governments like the Bahamas. Also, the cruising public will have to get used to shorter cruises, restricted shore tour itineraries, and the usual social distancing and mask wearing.
Air Travel will be Back, but Mostly Local
Air travel, an $8.9 trillion business according to analysts, will begin to recover in stages, closely paired to the vaccine rollout. Look for a strong recovery for leisure travel and for the airlines resuming their budget-minded holiday travelers.
International travel business will be slower in recovering. The first uptick will likely be an early resumption between developed countries like the U.S. and the United Kingdom.
The best travel deals remain for those who book ahead, as hopeful vacationers count on the widespread availability of the COVID-19 vaccine. Also, booking ahead now comes with lower risk as airlines won’t charge for changes in tickets or cancellation of flight bookings.
If the pandemic surges, even economy travelers will be able to postpone their travel with no penalty if they don’t feel safe when their original travel date arrives. Industry observers also note lower fares over many local routes. Travelers can lock in those prices now and avoid higher costs when demand picks up later.
Forget About Spring Break Surge
The upcoming spring break, however, has brought continued gloomy predictions. The travel industry was anticipating that colleges and schools could provide an impetus for everyone to celebrate. That hasn’t been the case. Some schools and colleges, which are already behind schedule, aren’t offering a complete spring break in 2021.
The better travel news is that as spring fever overcomes cabin fever, many families have accumulated airline credits from trips canceled in 2020. Those credits aren’t permanent, and airlines are anticipating a surge as travelers scramble to cash in their miles.
Many airlines have also done away with change fees on award tickets. Travelers are eager to forgo the long road trips to Disney World and hop a quick flight using those stockpiled points and travel miles.